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I got weird messages and nonsense estimates in AI REML. What is it?

Symptom

You would see G not positive definite or corrected Covariance Matrix in a REML iteration. The (co)variance estimates would look weird (zero or huge values). These are a sign of divergence - the estimation is nearly failing. Once it happens, the estimates are most likely nonsense; you should not use it as estimated values.

Mechanism

AI REML is efficient and reliable if the model is simple, and the amount of data is enough. However, AI REML is a purely numerical method, and the estimates are not guaranteed to be in the parameter space; sometimes the estimates become nonsense e.g., zero or negative variance components (this is what not positive definite means). The airemlf90 program tries to adjust the covariance estimates (corrected Covariance Matrix), but it is not perfect. Finally, the estimation would fail.

Source of issues

There are several reasons why the divergence has happened.

Remedy

There are some recommendations to avoid the divergence and to obtain estimates stably.

A good practice is to compare the estimates from different algorithms (different software). All the estimates should be the same or very close. If not, there is probably an issue in your model and data.